The Dodgers are favorites to win the National League West in 2026, which is not a surprise. They have been favored to win the division nearly every year for over a decade. But perhaps the scale of their expected prowess this year stands out.
We already know that PECOTA projected the Dodgers for 105 wins this season at Baseball Prospectus, and with that came a 99.8-percent chance to make the postseason and a stunning 98.6-percent chance of winning the NL West. FanGraphs is a little more conservative, giving the Dodgers a 99.5-percent chance to make the playoffs and only a 94.4-percent chance to win the division.
Everyone else in the division is seen as either right around .500 or are the Rockies.
| Team | Prospectus | FanGraphs | Average |
| Giants | 81.3 | 82.3 | 81.8 |
| Padres | 81.9 | 80.1 | 81.0 |
| D-backs | 77.5 | 80.8 | 79.2 |
| Rockies | 60.7 | 65.1 | 62.9 |
The Padres will get Joe Musgrove back this year but have already lost Dylan Cease and Robert Suárez, plus Yu Darvish might retire.
The Giants got a new manager in Tony Vitello, and added a lot on the periphery, signing Harrison Bader, Luis Arráez, Tyler Mahle, and Adrian Houser.
Arizona got Merrill Kelly back, signed Mike Soroka, and will probably get ace Corbin Burnes back around the All-Star break.
The Dodgers played an NL West team in the Division Series five years in a row (2020-24) before that streak ended last year, and even then San Diego still made the postseason. Given the projections, this year might be the first time since 2019 that the division won’t have multiple playoff teams.
Today’s question is which team is the Dodgers’ biggest threat in the National League West?