NBA MVP Ladder: How SGA’s Injury Opens the Door for Other Candidates

As the NBA prepares to break for its annual All-Star weekend festivities, a pair of players are climbing the MVP ladder with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sidelined.

Nikola Jokić returned from injury just in time to remain eligible for the 65-game minimum required for end-of-season awards consideration. Since rejoining the Nuggets, he’s averaging 24.2 points, 12.7 rebounds and 9.2 assists.

In the Eastern Conference, Cade Cunningham has the Pistons surging. Detroit currently owns the second-best record in the league and holds a 5.5-game lead for the No. 1 seed over the Celtics. Detroit hasn’t lost consecutive games since Dec. 28.

Using FTN’s new NBA StatsHub, let’s take a closer look at this year’s NBA MVP race, and whether Jokić, Cunningham or another dark horse can challenge Gilgeous-Alexander’s bid for a second consecutive Michael Jordan Trophy.

How to Win NBA MVP

There is a clear historical blueprint for winning NBA MVP. Three primary criteria have consistently defined the award in the last decade:

1. Top-3 playoff seed
2. Top-3 in Value Over Replacement Player
3. Top-3 in Win Shares

Currently, SGA is the only player meeting all three benchmarks this season. However, he suffered an abdominal injury earlier this month, and his status coming out of the All-Star break remains uncertain.

In recent years, the NBA has added a minimum-playing-time requirement — players must appear in at least 65 games to be eligible for end-of-season honors. Gilgeous-Alexander’s absence does not appear likely to jeopardize that threshold, but it has nonetheless created an opening for other candidates to strengthen their cases.

Let’s take a look at the leading contenders for MVP.

2025-2026 NBA MVP Candidates

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (-220 MVP Odds)

VORP: 2^nd
Win Shares: 1^st
Playoff Seed: 1^st

Prior to getting injured, SGA looked like the runaway favorite to win his second consecutive MVP award. At the time of his injury, he ranked second in the NBA in scoring, and the Thunder owned the league’s best record at 38-11.

Among players averaging at least 10 shot attempts per game, only Jokić and Kevin Durant have a better Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation. The Thunder have been 10.8 points better per 100 possessions with Gilgeous-Alexander on the court this season – a reflection of the undeniable value he brings to Oklahoma City.

Nikola Jokić (+300 MVP Odds)

VORP: 1^st
Win Shares: 2^nd
Playoff Seed: 4^th

The primary case against Nikola Jokić has nothing to do with his on-court production. He currently leads the NBA in VORP and ranks second in Win Shares. The Nuggets have been 15.7 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor – the strongest on/off differential among the leading MVP candidates.

Jokić also stands out across FTN’s NBA StatsHub metrics, leading the league in:

• Points Over Expectation
• Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation
• Expected Assist Conversion Rate

The biggest obstacle for Jokić to overcome is the league’s 65-game eligibility threshold. He’s already missed 16 games – 2 additional absences would render him ineligible for end-of-season honors, regardless of how impressive his per-game production has been.

Denver faces a demanding stretch following the All-Star break, including six back-to-backs and four instances of three games in four nights. It could be a challenge for the Nuggets to effectively manage his workload while also keeping him eligible for MVP.

Cade Cunningham (+2000 MVP Odds)

VORP: 7^th
Win Shares: 14^th
Playoff Seed: 1^st

Cunningham has emerged as the clear face of the top-seeded Pistons, and that team success has elevated him into this year’s MVP conversation. However, he would represent a significant historical outlier if he were to win the award with his current statistical profile.

Entering play Wednesday, Cunningham ranks seventh in VORP and 14th in Win Shares. Over the past decade, only two players have won MVP while finishing outside the top three in Win Shares – Joel Embiid finished fourth in 2023 and Russell Westbrook was fifth in 2017.

Cunningham has undeniably been a difference-maker for Detroit, as evidenced by the Pistons’ +6.5 Net Rating with him on the floor this season. He also ranks second in the NBA in assists per game. Those are impressive numbers, but they have not historically been enough to earn MVP honors.

Luka Dončić (+2000 MVP Odds)

VORP: 4^th
Win Shares: 15^th
Playoff Seed: 5^th

Luka Dončić is putting together another excellent campaign, but several factors are working against him in the MVP race. Most notably, he’s already missed 11 games for the Lakers, and that number of absences could increase to 12 if his bothersome hamstring keeps him from playing Thursday against the Mavericks.

Team success could also be a limiting factor for his candidacy. The Lakers are currently the 5 seed in a crowded Western Conference playoff picture, with the Spurs, Rockets, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Suns also contending for the Nos. 2 and 3 seeds.

Similar to Cunningham, Dončić ranks outside the top 10 in Win Shares this season, too – historically, a difficult position from which to secure MVP honors.

Tyrese Maxey (+5000 MVP Odds)

VORP: 3^rd
Win Shares: 3^rd
Playoff Seed: 6^th

If there is one player who may be overlooked in this year’s MVP race, it’s Tyrese Maxey. Joel Embiid did not exceed 30 minutes in any of Philadelphia’s first 23 games, yet Maxey kept the team competitive during that stretch, guiding the 76ers to a 13-10 SU record.

MVP voting is often influenced by perception and narrative as much as it is by true production, which could work against Maxey. Many pundits still view Philadelphia as Embiid’s team, especially with Embiid returning to a normal workload of late.

However, Maxey ranks third in VORP and third in Win Shares as of this writing – elite benchmarks that typically align with serious MVP consideration. One primary obstacle in his way is the fact that Philadelphia currently is the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference.

Historically, MVP winners come from a top-three seed. The 76ers are only 3 games behind the Knicks in the loss column for the 3-seed as of Wednesday, with a head-to-head matchup on tap for later in the day. Maxey is certainly a longshot to steal MVP honors this season, but neither Gilgeous-Alexander nor Jokic are a guarantee to meet the 65-game minimum requirement and there isn’t another standout in this year’s field of competitors. Maxey is certainly a longshot, but his path to MVP is more likely than his current betting odds suggest.

The Takeaway

This year’s MVP race is likely to hinge on availability. If both Gilgeous-Alexander and Jokić reach the league’s 65-game minimum, the field effectively arrows to those two candidates. If only one clears the eligibility threshold, that player would become the overwhelming favorite to win the award.

Should neither meet the requirement, the race becomes far more fluid, with no clear front-runner between Cunningham, Dončić and Maxey. Dončić stands out in FTN’s Field Goal Percentage Over Expectation metric, while Maxey has arguably provided the most consistent value to his team. Cunningham, meanwhile, has Detroit positioned atop the Eastern Conference, giving him a compelling team-success case.

As the All-Star break ends and the stretch run begins, this year’s MVP race is far from over.