We've got a small three-game slate on the NBA card tonight, but our NBA player prop projections are running hot.
Find out why we are backing Marcus Smart and Jusuf Nurkic to exceed expectations for your NBA picks on Thursday, February 12.
Our best computer picks for February 12
| Player | Pick | |
|---|---|---|
 Jericho Sims | Under 5.5 points | <<-105>> |
 Marcus Smart | Over 11.5 points | <<-105>> |
 Jusuf Nurkic | Over 8.5 rebounds | <<-130>> |
 Daniel Gafford | Under 9.5 points | <<-115>> |
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Today's best NBA prop projections
Jericho Sims Under 5.5 points (-105)
Projection: 3.2 points
Jericho Sims’ offensive role is limited almost entirely to put-backs and dump-offs, and his shot volume reflects that. With a projection barely above three points and no designed touches coming his way, 5.5 feels inflated for a player whose scoring depends on chaos rather than usage.
Marcus Smart Over 11.5 points (-105)
Projection: 12.6 points
Marcus Smart’s scoring role has stabilized, and the projection reflects consistent minutes and shot volume on his return to the lineup. At 11.5, this line doesn’t fully account for his willingness to take open looks, especially when defenses key on primary scorers. The Over makes sense before this number creeps up.
Jusuf Nurkic Over 8.5 rebounds (-130)
Projection: 9.5 rebounds
Jusuf Nurkic continues to log steady minutes in matchups that allow for defensive rebounding opportunities, and his role near the rim keeps him active on the glass. With the projection pushing close to double digits, 8.5 feels short for a player whose rebounding doesn’t rely on shooting variance.
Daniel Gafford Under 9.5 points (-115)
Projection: 8.6 points
Daniel Gafford’s scoring is highly dependent on lobs and interior touches, and his role doesn’t expand much beyond that. With the projection below nine points and a limited self-created offense, 9.5 asks for efficiency rather than volume, which makes the Under the cleaner side.
Not intended for use in MA.
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This article originally appeared on Covers.com, read the full article here