Inspiration.
The Diamondbacks traded away Blaze Alexander. Many months ago, I saw the possibility that he might outperform Jordan Lawlar. Was it my tendency to root for the underdog? Now, my view is that the two were going to be worlds apart. Therefore, the loss by trading him away was small.
The big question: Will Kade Strowd make an impact? How does he compare to other Diamondback pitchers?
The Daily Question About the Trade.
My grade for the trade was A. The bullpen may be the weakest link in the team. By strengthening the weakest link, Kade Strowd will likely positively impact wins more than Blaze would have.
After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga (minor league contract, but I’m very optimistic he will earn a spot the opening day bullpen). Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, which increased my grade.
In the trade, the Diamondbacks received two extra players (Wellington Aracena and Jose Mejia), who could make a future impact. These players increased my grade.
Three Recently Acquired Pitchers.
Let’s compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga.
A caveat is that Taylor Clarke could have a different role (last season he sometimes closed and sometimes pitched two innings). Therefore, comparing him to Kade Strowd and Jonathan Loaisiga might be like comparing apples to oranges. Let’s do it anyway.
First, what will we compare?
Foundational Requirements. The two requirements are fastball (FB) velocity of at least 94 MPH (graphically correlated with success of Diamondbacks relief pitchers) and xERA of less than 4.82 (last season’s average ERA for Diamondbacks relief pitchers per Baseball Reference). Each of the three pitchers meet the foundational requirements.
Ground Balls to Third Base. With the addition of Nolan Arenado at third base, I would look for pitchers with high ground ball rates, and especially high ground ball rates to third base. Each of the three pitchers has a high rate of ground balls to third base. However, Kade Strowd is a level above the other two pitchers.
On 21 January, when I searched for possible relief pitchers to acquire, only Brad Keller (who had been acquired by the Phillies in December) had a higher percentage of ground balls to third base. On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.
Hard Hit Percentage per Baseball Savant. In general, pitchers who limit batters’ hard hits will be most successful, especially when their team emphasizes great defense like the Diamondbacks. Kade Strowd is at a stellar level, better than the other two pitchers. Last season, all but 27 qualified batters had a season average better than Kade Strowd’s 31.3 hard hit percentage. On this metric, Kade Strowd is among the best in the Majors.
Worth note is that Diamondback Geraldo Perdomo is an exception to the rule. Despite his 31.9% hard hits, my view is that he is an exceptional batter.
Strikeouts Minus Walks. This metric has higher predictive power (of future pitching performance) than is generally known. That’s why I decided to instead look at (strikeouts minus walks) divided by PAs, instead of walk rate.
Taylor Clarke was at a higher level than the other two pitchers. Strowd’s .105 was very slightly below last season’s Diamondbacks average of .11.
Got-The-Job-Done (GTJD). For years, I’ve applied this metric when writing about relief pitchers. GTJD is defined as the percentage of appearances with allowing an earned run and without allowing an inherited runner to score.
Kade Strowd’s 80% GTJD was outstanding. It was higher than the other two pitchers.
Homers per PA. Kade Strowd’s .010 homers per PA was outstanding. It was much higher than the other two pitchers.
Kade Strowd’s homers per PA may not be sustainable next season. Nevertheless, it will likely be better than average.
The following table shows the comparison of the three pitchers. Circled are two important metrics for Kade Strowd. Data from Baseball Savant and Baseball Reference.
Pitch Selection.
At the top level, Kade Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, Taylor Clarke pitches 40% sliders, and Jonathan Loaisiga pitches mostly sinkers. Nevertheless, each of the pitchers seems to have a wider variety of pitches than the typical reliever. The following tables compare Kade Strowd to Taylor Clarke and Jonathan Loaisiga. Data from Baseball Savant.
What did Mike Hazen say?
“Felt like he [Kade Strowd] took a pretty big step forward last year at the very end of the season. We like his stuff and he adds into the bullpen mix that we have — guys that have some flexibility.”— Mike Hazen
“He [Taylor Clarke] was very consistent. He had a really good second half. We feel like he pounds the strike zone. We think he could fit into that longer role, multiple-inning, one-plus role. We feel like there’s versatility there. Obviously, we know the makeup and have a long history with him. Good fit for us.” — Mike Hazen
“I think he’s [Jonathan Loaisiga] got great stuff. We’ve always liked him from afar.” — Mike Hazen
Summary.
The Diamondbacks traded for Kade Strowd. He will make an impact on the bullpen, the weakest link on the team
After deciding five metrics that the Diamondbacks need from the bullpen pitchers, I compared Strowd to Clarke and Loaisiga. Strowd was better in 4 of the 5 metrics, including Got-The-Job-Done, which is important for relief pitchers. His excellent homers per PA was so good that it is likely unsustainable. Furthermore, Strowd was among the best in the league in most ground balls to third base and least hard-hit percentage.
Strowd pitches about 40% cutters, with four additional types of pitches.
Mike Hazen said that at the end of last season, Kade Strowd took a pretty big step forward.