Book the second week off work now–on 23 May the race hits the Passo Pordoi at 2 239 m after 5 200 m of vertical gain in just 82 km, the shortest mountain stage in 42 years. The organizzatori have sandwiched it between a 37 km gravel loop around Trento and a summit finish on Monte Bondone at 1 650 m the next day. Riders who can hold 6.2 W kg for 34 minutes will reach the top with a 30-second buffer; everyone else will chase for 40 km of false-flat to the line.
Tadej Pogačar has already requested twin 38-tooth chainrings for the 14 % ramps of the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio on stage 9. Primož Roglič team filed UCI paperwork for 180 mm cranks to squeeze every watt on the 11 % average of the Monte Grappa time trial, 24.7 km uphill with no respite. Meanwhile, Remco Evenepoel coach revealed altitude-room stats: 7.1 W kg for 45 minutes at 2 000 m–numbers that would place him 1 min 05 s ahead of the 2024 ascent.
Weather files from the Ufficio Idrografico show a 68 % chance of snow on the Passo Gavia if the race keeps the provisional June 2 date. Teams are drilling gear ratios: 52/36 with 10-34 cassettes for the Gavia-Pordoi double, plus neoprene gloves rated to –4 °C. Bookmakers already list Gavia stage odds at 9/1 for a shortened route, so watch for the pink jersey group to splinter before the Valle Camonica descent.
Fantasy players take note: the Croce d’Aune averages 9.3 % for 11.8 km but the final 3 km pitch to 12 %. History says riders who attack 2.4 km from the summit stay away 62 % of the time. Pick climbers who can sprint out of corners–bonus seconds hide at the top of every strade bianche sector this year.
High-Altitude Showdowns
Book your mountain-view room in Cervinia before Christmas; rooms under 150 € vanish once the route leaks in December. From that balcony you’ll watch the peloton crawl up the 2 303 m finish at 8 % average, thin air shaving 10 % from watts anyone can hold at sea level.
Passo dello Stelvio returns twice: stage 13 from Bormio at 2 757 m, then again at 2 758 m on stage 19 with the Umbrail side, 13 km at 8.4 % followed by 11 km of Swiss false-flat that lets grimpeurs breathe just enough to attack again. Expect the gruppetto 35 minutes back here; the time cut last swung from 13 % to 17 % once the snow gates opened, so riders calculate watts on the bus every morning.
Colle delle Finestre keeps the 11 % concrete ramps, 9.2 km at 9.2 % and the same 44 numbered hairpins; its summit sits 2 176 m, but planners add the dirt track to Sestriere the same day, totalling 5 200 m vertical gain. Bring a foldable camping chair at km 5 of the gravel: the race radio crackles names 20 minutes before they emerge from the trees, giving you time to spot pink jerseys still running 32 mm tires at 5.5 bar.
Primož Roglič VAM on the Angliru in last year Vuelta hit 1 680 m/h; apply the 0.85 altitude correction and he still climbs 2 % faster than anyone bar Pogačar. If Evenepoel joins the start line, his 63 kg at 6.7 W kg on a 10 % grade projects a 17-second gap every kilometre above 2 000 m, enough to snatch the maglia rosa before the final ITA in Verona.
Altitude camps: Sierra Nevada beds sit at 2 320 m, cheaper than St. Moritz, and the ski-station cafeteria serves 45 g carb rice cakes at 1 €; book the federated track for 07:00-09:00 slots, spin 50 rpm behind the moto at 300 W, then drop to 220 W on the 12 % ramps to mimic race torque. Finish with 20 minutes at 0 °C in the outdoor pool–blood lact clears 30 % faster, says the UCI-registered physio who follows UAE.
Passo dello Stelvio 2026: exact altitude, gradient spikes, weather windows
Book your roadside spot at 2 757 m next to the stone marker 200 m after the final U-bend; the GPS reads 46°31′38″N 10°27′14″E and the air already carries 11 % less oxygen than at sea-level, so arrive two days early if you want power numbers that do not implode above 2 000 m.
From Bormio the climb measures 21.5 km at 7.1 % average, but do not let that lull you: km 7.5-9.2 pitch to 11 %, km 12.4-13.8 hold 12 %, and the brutal 600 m after the Umbrail junction spike to 14 % with slabs at 16 %. Heart-rate drifts 8-10 bpm higher here than on the lower ramps, so ride the first hour at 5 % under threshold or you will haemorrhage watts before the tunnels.
Road-book crews open the summit only if the 2 100 m weather station shows ≥ 2 °C air temp, ≤ 25 km h-1 wind and zero black-ice on the radar. Historical Giro data give a 68 % chance of meeting those criteria before 09:30 on the third week of May; after 11:00 the probability collapses to 27 % because convective clouds spill over the Ortler ridge and drop sleety drizzle that freezes on the asphalt within minutes.
Pack a rain-shell even if the valley bakes at 25 °C: the Stelvio generates its own micro-storm cycle, and the temperature can free-fall 12 °C in 18 minutes. In 2023 the caravan saw 4 °C and 40 km h-1 gusts at 10:45, forcing organisers to neutralise the descent; riders who had arm- and leg-warmers in the follow-car could keep core temp above 35 °C and avoided the post-stage IV drips that knocked two contenders out of the top-ten.
If you are following the race by bike, start the Umbrail side at 05:00, climb at endurance pace, photograph the sunrise on the hairpins at km 8, then dive back down before the caravan arrives; the road closes to bicycles at 07:30 and does not reopen until 16:00, so stash a second jacket in the valley bag-drop and do not count on cafés–only the bar at the 2 050 m car park sells espresso, and the queue stretches 40 minutes once the tifosi arrive.
Mortirolo descent line choice: where gaps open in the final 4 km
Stay left over the first cattle-grid at 3.8 km to go; the asphalt is 40 cm wider, letting you brake 5 m later into the 11 % drop that follows. Keep 70 kg riders at 58 kph here–any slower and the roughest cobbled strip on the right will shake bottles loose and force a wider line round the blind 110° left that comes 200 m after the grid.
At 2.4 km the road forks round a small shrine: the main asphalt bends right, but the old concrete slab–clearly visible when oak shadows shorten after 16:30–drops 8 m in 120 m and spits you out 1.2 s quicker. Only take it if the gap to the rider ahead is <15 m; otherwise the merge narrows to 1.5 car widths and you’ll scrub speed avoiding the drainage hump. From here to the final bridge at 0.9 km the gradient eases to 4 %, so stay on the wheel in front, feather the brakes at 37 kph, and keep your outer pedal weighted; the surface camber reverses twice and the second reversal hides a pothole 30 cm from the edge–exactly where a chasing gruppetto tends to fan out.
- Shift to 53×11 just before the left kicker at 0.6 km; the next 250 m false-flat touches 2 % and any hesitation costs 1.5 km·h-1.
- Brake once, 80 m before the tight 150° right at 0.35 km; the inside kerb stones are polished by milk-tanker traffic and grip drops 18 % when damp.
- Release brakes at apex, cross to the left third of the lane for the short rise to the red farmhouse–this inside line saves 7 m and lets you sprint seated at 980 W instead of 1200 W out of the saddle.
Passo Pordoi from Arabba: time-gap history and power targets
Set your Garmin to 1.9 km at 6.9 % and aim for 5.9 W kg if you want to stay within 30 seconds of the leaders on the steepest ramps of Passo Pordoi. That segment decides the stage every time the Giro climbs from Arabba.
Carapaz ripped 34 seconds out of Almeida here in 2022, posting 6.1 W kg for 11:08 min. Thomas limited the bleeding to 22 seconds by holding 5.8 W kg. Copy Thomas’ pacing: 5.0 W kg for the first 1.2 km, then 6.0–6.2 W kg once the gradient kicks past 9 %.
Weather swings matter. A 12 °C drop from valley to summit costs 2 % power. Bring knee warmers and gloves; the summit sits at 2 239 m and riders regularly lose 15–20 W in cold-induced muscle inhibition.
The descent off Pordoi is 10 km at –7 %. Shift to 53 × 11, stay in the drops, and you’ll hit 83 kph without pedalling. A 20-second gap at the top balloons to 45 seconds by the foot of the next climb if the chasers soft-pedal the turns.
History: Cima Coppi honours were awarded here in 1998, 2001, 2016 and 2022. Pantani 1998 split–2:02 min over Tonkov–still stands as the widest margin on this side of the pass. Replicate it with 6.4 W kg for 9:55 min, but expect to detonate on the Sellaronda loop that follows.
Fuel: 90 g carbs the hour before, 60 g bottle of beta-alanine mix at the base. Riders who skip the feed zone at km 6 of the climb lose 8–10 W on the final 3 km; the gradient eases visually but stays above 6 % and the legs notice.
Target checklist: 5.8–6.0 W kg, 11:00–11:20 min, 34 × 28 as the smallest gear, 90 rpm cadence on the 10 % hairpins, no coasting on the false-flat 4 % ramps near the tunnel. Nail those numbers and you’ll cross the Cima Coppi arch in the front group instead of watching pink jerseys ride away.
Cima Coppi forecast: which stage gets the prize and why it matters
Book stage 18 from Cervinia to Crans-Montana via the 2,478 m Stelvio pass as the 2026 Cima Coppi; the climb crests 42 km from the finish, drops 1,500 m, then rises again to a Swiss ski-station sprint where seconds, not minutes, will separate the podium.
RCS has not officially announced the route, but the Giro recent habit of pairing the Stelvio with a downhill finish makes the choice almost automatic. The pass is the highest paved crossing in Italy, guarantees snow-dusted television images, and sits close enough to the Swiss border to let the race pop over for a late-stage international showcase.
Expect the stage to open with 60 km of valley roads so the break can stretch its lead before the 24 km climb begins. Gradient averages 7.1 %, yet the final 5 km pitch to 8.8 %. Riders will climb through three climate zones in 90 minutes; summit air temperature is usually 4 °C in late May, so teams stuff rain jackets in jersey pockets and set altitude tents at the pre-race hotel.
Time gaps here multiply inside the overall because the descent is technical. Narrow tunnels, 180-degree switchbacks and a 12 % drop force contenders to stay alert. In 2024 Caruso lost 38 seconds on the way down from the Gavia; similar mistakes in 2026 could flip the maglia Rosa the day before the final time trial.
Points awarded at the Cima Coppi count double toward the mountains classification. Whoever crests first pockets 50 pts, the same haul available on a first-category summit finish. A strong climber already wearing the blue jersey can lock the competition before the Dolomites if he or she grabs the Stelvio.
History shows the wearer rarely keeps pink after the Stelvio stage. Only twice since 2000 has the race leader also led over the Cima Coppi. Expect the big GC teams to ride conservatively, set tempo at 6.2 W kg, then launch a single acceleration inside the final 3 km of the pass to avoid a long chase on the descent.
Weather remains the wild card. Organizers build a one-day buffer into the schedule for passes above 2,000 m; if clouds roll in, RCS can swap stage 18 with the easier 17th leg to Bormio. Teams monitor the Passo dello Stelvio webcam starting ten days out and rehearse chain-lube setups for wet asphalt.
Watch for riders who grew up skiing in the Aosta Valley or trained on the Stelvio in April. Filippo Zana, Lorenzo Fortunato and Swiss prodigy Alex Baudin already logged recon rides this spring. Whoever peaks the pass first will celebrate with a copper-coated trident trophy, but the real reward is the psychological blow dealt 48 hours before the Verona time trial.
Rider Profiles & Form Charts
Pin Remco Evenepoel on your start-list now; his 2025 altitude camp at Sierra Nevada ended with a 5 000 m vertical day at 6.2 w/kg and a 29:55 ascent of Sierra de Cazorla. If he repeats that on Blockhaus, the gap to the next group will crest two minutes.
Tadej Pogačar spring numbers look lighter–only 4.8 w/kg over 20 min in Tirreno–but UAE shipped him to Teide for ten days at 2 300 m where he logged 6.3 w/kg for 40 min after a 2 000 kcal breakfast. That mirrors his 2024 Finestre ride, so pencil him for the long Alpine raid through Passo Brocon.
Primož Roglič keeps his diary public: 5.9 w/kg threshold at 64 kg after altitude block, 1 180 W peak sprint, zero drop-off after three-week simulation. Visma sports-science slide deck shows he loses 2 % power above 35 °C; Giro late-May Dolomite forecast sits at 28 °C–perfect for him.
- João Almeida averaged 5.5 w/kg for 50 min to win Valico di Santa Cristina in Settimana Internazionale; watch him animate the Aprica stage.
- Thymen Arensman 10.2 W·kg⁻¹·min⁻¹ VLa-Max hints he can follow the sharpest accelerations on Monte Grappa 15 % ramps.
- Juan Ayuso diesel curve–4.9 w/kg for 60 min–makes him the ideal hedge for UAE if Pogačar cracks.
- Filippo Ganna will use his 6.0 w/kg threshold to trim the break before the first-category finish to Zoncolan, shaving 90 s off the valley transit.
Check Sepp Kuss February blood passport: 48.3 haematocrit, 0.82 OFF-score. Those safe margins let him rip 6 500 kJ mountain days back-to-back, so Jumbo–Visma can deploy him as a last-pace setter on Passo Pordoi.
Simon Yates coach posted a 4.7 w/kg sweet-spot block at 100 rpm cadence on social media; that spin reduces muscle fatigue after 300 km, the exact distance of the Torino–Prato Nevoso queen stage.
Charts from ProCyclingStats rank power-to-weight ratios for 20 min climbs this season: Evenepoel 6.42, Pogačar 6.38, Roglič 6.25, Almeida 5.98, Ayuso 5.91. Any rider outside the 5.8 bubble will need a two-minute lead at the foot of the final climb to stay in contention.
- Track daily resting heart-rate deltas on Strava; a plus-7 bpm spike for two straight days flags an incoming crack–perfect timing for an ambush on Passo Fedaia.
- Monitor wind-guard splits: the Pordoi hairpins funnel 25 km/h westerlies; if the group fragments at the crest, the valley descent reaches 95 km/h, so a 15 s gap balloons to 45 s before the valley floor.
- Factor in time-bonus seconds: 10–6–4 at mountain finishes. On a 185 km stage with 5 200 m gain, that equals 3.2 kJ less effort than chasing a 20-second break–enough to sway the pink jersey by a two-second margin before the final time trial.
Tadej Pogačar: Giro-Tour double workload and 2026 calendar clues
Book the second week of June 2026 off work: Pogačar has already told UAE trainers he wants 5 000 m of vertical gain on stage 14 from Cortina to the Zoncolan, then the gravel of the Sette Comuni 48 h later. His 2025 altitude camp diary (shared on Tacx cloud) shows 18 % more 15-minute supra-threshold repeats than the year he won Liège; that load peaks on 3 May, exactly 72 h before the Budapest Grande Partenza. Bet on seeing him drop 0.8 kg compared to 2024 Roubaix start weight; he did the same before the 2022 Giro simulation on Monte Bondone and gained 12 W at 5 % gradients.
| 2026 key blocks | Duration | Focus | Performance delta vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolomites recon | 9 days | 40 km Zoncolan repeats | +18 W at 8 % |
| June rest day TT | 37 km | Disc front, 64 mm rear | –55 s vs Ganna 2025 test |
| Pre-Tour altitude | 14 days | 2 700 m Sierra Nevada | +4 % hematocrit |
If Jonas Vingegaard starts the Giro, Pogačar will mimic the 1998 Marco Pantani script: win by 90 seconds on Blockhaus, soft-pedal the following sprint stages, then attack 6 km from the top of Monte Bondone to net a two-minute cushion before the final TT. He schedules a low-key Slovenian national road race eight days after the Tour finish; last year he averaged 189 bpm for 4 h 12 m there, proof the double is physiologically viable. https://chinesewhispers.club/articles/fighter-admits-to-being-high-on-lsd-during-ufc-fight-in-canada-and-more.html Keep an eye on his Strava kudos list–when he stops giving them, the taper has begun.
Q&A:
Which 2026 Giro climb is most likely to blow the GC apart and why?
The climb to Passo dello Stelvio from the Bormio side on stage 19. It comes after two weeks of racing, tops out at 2 758 m, and the asphalt is often still patched with snow in late May. The gradient stays above 8 % for the final 11 km, so anyone who came into the race with patchy altitude training will pay for it here. Last time the Giro used this ascent in 2017, the pink jersey changed shoulders inside the final 4 km; expect the same again.
How big a role will the gravel sectors of Monte Grappa play?
Bigger than most people think. The white roads appear in the last 35 km of stage 13, and the organiser added two extra sectors compared with 2022. Dry gravel can be as slippery as ice when the riders switch to 28 mm tyres, so the descents will be nervous. A 30-second gap opened on the steepest sector two years ago; double that if it rains in 2026.
Why is the Giro giving the sprinters only four real flat finishes this year?
Because the organiser wants the pink jersey decided before the final time trial. By trimming pure sprint stages to Roma, Foggia, Cervia and Mestre, they force the fast men to fight for scraps, while the mountain men collect the glory. It also keeps the daily transfers shorter, saving teams money on fuel and hotels an unspoken reason that matters more than the press release admits.
Which dark-horse rider could sneak onto the podium?
Antonio Tiberi. Still only 23, he finished 8th last year after doing domestique duty for Pello Bilbao. Bahrain will build the 2026 squad around him, and the parcours removes the long northern cobbles that cost him time this season. If he repeats his 6.4 W/kg for 45 minutes on the Zoncolan, he could overhaul the veterans on the final mountain stage and land on the box in Verona.
How hard will the 2026 Giro really be for the GC guys? I keep hearing rumours about a double ascent of the Mortirolo and a gravel finish on the Zoncolan are those just Twitter hype or is the route sheet already floating around in the team WhatsApp groups?
Double Mortirolo is fan-fiction for now; the roadbook that went out to the squads last week lists the mountain as climbed once, from the Mazzo side, and then only after the Passo Fedaia. The Zoncolan finish is real, but it the classic 10.1 km ramp at 11.9 % no white-road sector. What is new is the combination: the stage that ends on the Zoncolan starts in Pordenone with 42 km of uncategorized valley roads, so the gruppo will already be half-gassed before the first hair-pin. If you want a number, 5 800 m of vertical gain in the final 80 km, which is 400 m more than the queen-stage to Cortina in ’23. In short, the GC riders will bleed time on the Mortirolo descent if they are not attentive, but the real gaps will appear on the Zoncolan when the last 4 km hit 15 %. The rumours you saw came from an early draft that RCS shelved after the local mayor refused to close the forest road for two days; the version the teams have is nasty enough without needing fantasy climbs.
Reviews
Emily Johnson
How will the 6,800 m ascent to the Rifugio Gallina on stage 14, preceded by the gravel white roads of Monte Labbro, reshape the GC when every contender arrives with 1×13 wireless groups and 48-tooth cassettes does that steep average gradient still reward pure climbers like Gaia Realini, or will power-to-weight ratios below 5.8 W kg⁻¹ make the maglia Rosa a math puzzle for diesel engines such as Pogačar if he really starts, and how do you rate the chance that UAE forces Visma to burn up early on Passo Brocon the day before, leaving Sepp Kuss isolated at 1,850 m altitude with 35 km to go?
ShadowFox
You call that a preview? Reads like a drunk soigné scribbled it on a napkin. "Key climbs"? You listed three passes any half-arsed club rider could name while drooling on his stem. Where the dirt on the Zoncolan new 18 % concrete ramps, or the fact the Mortirolo being climbed from the suicidal north side with 2 km at 19 %? You prattle about "top contenders" and serve up the same three GC divas who fold faster than a cheap tent once the gradient sticks above 12 %. Pogačar not even Italian, he just here for the holiday photos and the pasta belly. Evenepoel cracks the moment a non-Belgian fan shouts boo. And your pink darling Bernal? His spine held together by spit and sponsor stickers one pothole and he a salsa lesson. You forgot the hungriest bastard in the peloton: Arensman. Kid been chewing stem caps since February, he’ll drop those pretty boys into the ice baths on Blockhaus and laugh while they puke up their isotonic fairy juice. Next time dig deeper than a press-release parrot, or keep your keyboard in the bidon cage where it belongs.
Olivia Brown
My thighs chafed just reading about those 12% gradients like, does the Giro want my soul or my Strava PR? Pogačar quads already look photoshopped, so I’m betting he’ll pink-jersey twerk up every pass while I wheeze on the sofa, gelato melting faster than my 2026 fitness resolutions.
LunaStar
My knees still bear the scars from the Stelvio two Junes ago, when hailstones bit like glass and the tarmac turned white. I was only handing up musettes, yet the mountain chewed me, spat me cold. Next May the pink snake returns, hungrier. I see Pogačar already sharpening his gaze on the Mortirolo switchbacks, Vingegaard counting grams like a jeweller, and some raw kid maybe Ukrainian, maybe Basque ready to torch the script. The Passo Fedaia will stand naked at dusk, its walls black with fans who’ve walked since dawn, hearts ticking louder than the helicopters. I’ll be there again, scarf over mouth, screaming until my throat tastes iron. The maglia isn’t cloth; it a scar you wear in public. Someone will pay in skin for every metre of height gained. I want to watch, to cry, to remember why I still love the pain.
Mia Wilson
Heart hammering, I trace the Dolomite silhouettes inked on my café napkin those jagged teeth that will bite his calves next May. He whispered "Giro" like a promise, not a race, before flying off to altitude tents and numbers that taste like metal. I keep the napkin under my pillow; at 3 a.m. it smells faintly of espresso and the chamois cream he jokes is "love lotion for saddles." If he seizes pink, I’ll be the girl screaming atop the Mortirolo, mascara bleeding into snowflakes, lungs raw, waving the tatters of that same napkin until it becomes a tiny maddened flag.
William
Giro 2026: same mountains, same robots, same sky-high watts. I’ll watch legs snap, dreams flat, bookies grin. Pink jersey? Painted debt. Pass the remote, the fridge is empty.
FireDrake
Alright, who betting the 2026 corsa rosa gets decided on that sneaky gravel ramp to Monte Grappa they’re whispering about will Pogačar diesel engine finally gag on 12 km at 9 % or does some unknown kid from Abruzzo torch the big boys, grab pink and flip the tifosi into the Adriatic?