Why Villa are this season's big overperformers

Are Aston Villa wobbling?

Unai Emery's side are being questioned after winning two of their past six Premier League games, and falling to three home defeats in five matches at the once impenetrable Villa Park.

They remain third and can strengthen their position with victory at rock bottom Wolves on Friday.

Villa can move nine points clear of Chelsea, before Liam Rosenior takes them to leaders Arsenal on Sunday, and close to within two points of second-placed Manchester City.

Emery's team have been in the top four since beating Leeds on 23 November. Yet the head coach has consistently said they are underdogs to return to the Champions League.

Do the stats agree?

"We are not contenders to be in the top five," Emery said last month.

"There are other teams with more potential than us."

That was followed by silence when he was asked why other teams had more Champions League potential than Villa.

Yet Villa have continued to outstrip expectation after making their worst start to a Premier League season in 28 years with just two points and no goals after four games.

Emery is their biggest asset, having raised the levels and standards at the club since replacing Steven Gerrard in November 2023.

Having taken them to the Champions League for the first time since 1982-83, when it was the European Cup - and then to last season's quarter-finals - workaholic Emery has transformed Villa.

Of the managers who have taken charge of more than 100 Premier League games, he sits 10th, having earned 1.8 points per game during his 179 games with Arsenal and Villa.

And of the nine above him, only Mikel Arteta, who succeeded Emery at the Gunners, is not a title winner, with Pep Guardiola top on 2.28 points per game.

Emery has improved players, signing Morgan Rogers for £16m from Middlesbrough - when he was not even a guaranteed starter for Boro - and turning him into an England regular within two years.

He drives the players, meticulously planning, and while Villa's performances have not been exceptional this season, they have found ways to win consistently.

According to Opta, Villa should be 12th - they have an expected points score of 33.8 - demonstrating how Emery has got them overperforming.

He is now doing it without Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans and captain John McGinn after losing all three to injury last month while battling financial restrictions as Villa look to comply with Premier League and Uefa rules.

Emery is also trying to end Villa's 30-year trophy drought, with winning the Europa League a real possibility.

"We are setting our standards high and sometimes we can become frustrated because we are not achieving during the process some results," Emery said.

"But overall, our consistency is still there and our demand is still there.

"If we are third, it is because we are being consistent and we are being demanding.

"Of course, maybe we can change something but tactically and in our idea of how we are building the team, everything we built before makes sense.

"It is not easy now to change everything. No, it is completely wrong if we are feeling that."

Can Villa hold off the chasing pack?

Villa have still been more consistent than Manchester United, Chelsea, Liverpool and Newcastle, leaving them in an incredibly strong position.

Their stumble, though, has stopped them pulling clear of those teams, and all but ended talk of an improbable title challenge.

They host Chelsea next Wednesday and then go to Old Trafford, while they welcome Liverpool on 17 May before finishing the season at Manchester City.

Villa have been unable to pull away from the chasing pack - and draw closer to City - because they have taken only 12 points in their past eight league matches.

They have scored just eight goals during that run - with only Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest and Wolves scoring fewer over the same period.

Ollie Watkins has netted just once in his past 10 games, slowly reverting to his previous struggles, where he netted once in the opening 19 matches.

Morgan Rogers has also scored once in his past 10 league games and while Tammy Abraham has started strongly with two goals after his move from Roma, Villa need more creativity and ruthlessness - 11 teams have a higher xG - expected goals total.

Ultimately, underlying xG numbers almost always win and as the season has gone on, Villa's results have started to line up more closely with their general performances.

Senior Villa figures have said it does not matter if they are getting points on the board and have been irritated by the suggestion they relied too much on long range goals earlier in the season.

They have scored 13 from outside the box this season, two more than Bournemouth, but well short of Chelsea's record of 23 in 2006-07, with a conversation rate of 10.4%.

But as those goals have dried up, Villa's defence has held up, even if it is conceding too many chances.

Only the top two have shipped fewer goals - but here, Villa are exceeding expectation too.

They have a defensive xG of 38, having faced 346 shots, but have only conceded 28 goals. It means Villa are the biggest xG overperformers in the Premier League this season.

The stats do not lie - but in the final 11 games of the domestic season, Emery needs to ensure Villa continue to buck the trend.