Rashan Gary statistical analysis: Could he stay in Green Bay in 2026?

The parting of ways between Rashan Gary and the Green Bay Packers has seemed like a bit of a foregone conclusion, due to a disappointing 2025 campaign from Gary, as well as a steep cap hit of $28 million in 2026.

Listening to Brian Gutekunst speak this week at the NFL Scouting Combine though, it sounds like there is at least a chance the former first-round pick is back for another go around. That would likely mean a contract restructure rather than a release.

There is a chance Gutekunst is just keeping his cards close to his chest, but is there an argument for keeping Gary? Here are the stats he put up last season:

Based on the numbers, there are plenty of areas Gary was above average in, including every pass rush metric except for sacks per snap. Gary did manage 60 pressures and seven sacks (using PFF's numbers), which is nothing to sneeze at.

He also plays a lot of snaps compared to edge rushers around the league, despite the talk of him not being on the field enough.

However, it is worth noting that these numbers are compared to 123 other edge defenders. He is still above average compared to the entire league, but they are more the numbers of a secondary pass rusher, not a lead dog.

That was his role in 2025 after Micah Parsons came aboard, but the problem is that Gary’s contract is paying him like one of the league’s best pass rushers, not the second-best one on his own team.

The other key issue is that he is not as impactful as he once was. Gary ranked right at the top of the league in 2022 in almost every pass rush metric, and he was still a viable No. 1 pass rusher in 2023, but he has not been the same player in the last two years.

It is worth pointing out that he actually improved in terms of hurries and hits on the quarterback between 2024 and 2025, from the 57th to the 70th percentile and the 43rd to the 71st percentile respectively, and he also ranked higher in pass rush snaps per game.

But he did not rebound to the level of performance from earlier in his career, as was the hope with the presence of Parsons to draw the attention of opposing offenses. Gary didn’t have a sack in the final 10 games.

Gary was also an above average run defender in 2025, as he has been consistently according to the numbers. That is an underrated part of his game. After a career year in 2024 though, he did regress in every metric last season.

Another underrated aspect of Gary’s game is that he has been one of the least penalized edge defenders in the last two years.

Overall, Gary is not the passenger some people may paint him as. He is still an above average defensive end, he’s just not what he once was, and is trending in the wrong direction. On the scale laid out, ‘above average’ is a No. 2 rusher, not a No. 1, and that’s what he is now.

The Packers are paying him too much for that, so there is no real way they can just roll into 2026 with him still on his existing contract, especially given their current cap situation.

If Green Bay was to broach a pay cut, how low would they want him to go? They would need to find a middle ground Gary’s will accept, and ultimately be comfortable cutting bait if he is not willing to play ball.

Keeping Gary could make some sense as Parsons may miss a few games at the start of next season, but his presence would then make it more difficult for Lukas Van Ness to take on the starting role he seems ready for.

An argument can be made either way, and the answer should come fairly soon, as the Packers need to start making moves to get under the cap, particularly if they hope to redistribute any savings by acquiring free agents.

This article originally appeared on Packers Wire: Rashan Gary statistical analysis: Could he stay in Green Bay in 2026?