Lady Vols basketball vs Vanderbilt prediction. Who will win SEC matchup?

Lady Vols basketball has a home matchup with its in-state rival on senior day to close out the regular season.

Tennessee (16-11, 8-7 SEC) will play No. 5 Vanderbilt (26-3, 12-3) at Food City Center on March 1 (2 p.m. ET, ESPN). The Lady Vols have lost five straight games, and the Commodores have won two ranked matchups in a row over Kentucky and Alabama.

Here's what you need to know about the matchup.

Mikayla Blakes leads SEC in scoring

Mikayla Blakes has been one of the best players in the country this season, and she has a strong case for National Player of the Year.

The sophomore guard averages 26.9 points, which inceases to 30.3 points in SEC games. Blakes has scored over 30 points against five straight ranked opponents, making her the second NCAA player this century to do so.

Blakes is a three-level scorer, efficient and gets to the free throw line. She's also a great defender and facilitator, averaging three steals and 4.6 assists.

Blakes has only been held to fewer than 25 points three times in SEC play. Slowing her down may not be possible, but Tennessee has to limit production from her teammates like Aubrey Galvan, Justine Pissott and Sacha Washington.

Tennessee needs to dominate the boards

The Lady Vols looked like a team that could upset LSU in the first half when they dominated the glass with offensive rebounds and outpacing the Tigers in second-chance points, 14-4 on Feb. 26.

But LSU outrebounded Tennessee, and had 12-0 advantage in second-chance points in the second half, leading to an 89-73 win for the Tigers. That can't happen if the Lady Vols want to upset Vanderbilt.

The Commodores aren't the strongest rebounding team in the SEC, ranking 10th in rebounding margin (-2.27) in conference games. Tennessee ranks eighth (-1.13), but it's third in offensive rebounds per game (14.5) in SEC games. The Lady Vols are less successful in defensive rebounding, ranking 13th, but Vanderbilt is 15th in defensive rebounding and ninth in offensive rebounding.

Tennessee has to turn the boards into an advantage, and it has to do it for 40 minutes.

Vanderbilt has won last two matchups with Lady Vols

Tennessee lost to Vanderbilt twice last season for the first time in program history.

The Lady Vols lost by one point on the road in the regular season when Blakes grabbed an offensive rebound and hit the game-winner at the buzzer. Then the Commodores beat Tennessee, 84-76, in the SEC tournament.

There's a possibility the teams could face off twice this year with the regular-season finale and in the SEC Tournament.

Lady Vols vs Vanderbilt prediction

Vanderbilt 78, Tennessee 75: Based on the progress the Lady Vols have been inching towards, an upset is entirely possible. But they haven't shown just enough yet, especially defensively, to make me pick an upset.

Cora Hall is the University of Tennessee women’s athletics reporter for Knox News. Email: [email protected]; X: @corahalll; Bluesky: @corahall.bsky.social‬. Support strong local journalism and unlock premium perks:knoxnews.com/subscribe

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Lady Vols basketball vs Vanderbilt prediction. Who will win SEC matchup?