Phil Jackson’s ‘40-20’ rule for NBA title contenders has 3 members th… — and more

Phil Jackson had a handy rule for determining the NBA’s real championship contenders well before the playoffs began. Jackson is credited as the creator ‘40-20 rule,’ which states a team has to hit 40 wins before 20 losses in the regular season to have a shot at the title. This rule has held up shockingly well throughout time, with 18 of the last 19 champions and 41 of the last 45 champions fitting into the criteria. Only the the 1995 Houston Rockets, 2004 Detroit Pistons, 2006 Miami Heat, and 2021 Milwaukee Bucks have won an NBA championship without winning 40 games before losing 20 games since the league introduced the three-point line for the 1979-1980 season.

With the Boston Celtics’ loss to the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night, there’s now only three teams that fit Jackson’s ‘40-20 rule’ for this season’s 2026 championship race:

• Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15)
• San Antonio Spurs (42-16)
• Detroit Pistons (43-14)

The Thunder have been widely considered the championship favorites since the start of the season if not a potential dynasty, so joining this club doesn’t mean much to OKC. It should feel more legitimizing for the Pistons and Spurs, two teams attempting a ‘worst-to-first’ arc this season as they’ve made stunning leaps into contention just a few years after landing the No. 1 overall NBA draft pick. No wonder almost 30 percent of the league is tanking this year, especially with an incredible draft class on deck.

The Pistons went 14-68 two years ago. What’s changed since then? Cade Cunningham started living up to the hype as a former No. 1 overall pick, Jalen Duren developed into an All-Star center, and head coach JB Bickerstaff (who replaced Monty Williams after the 14-win season) whipped the defense into the league’s No. 2 unit behind homegrown players like Isaiah Stewart, Ausar Thompson, and Ron Holland. Detroit made a big jump to 44 wins last year then had the Knicks sweating in a tough first-round series. Right now, the Pistons are on pace to win 61.5 games this season. It’s simply an incredible turnaround.

The Spurs were always destined to be a contender eventually with Victor Wembanyama, but no one thought it would happen this quickly. Wembanyama hasn’t even played a playoff game yet, but that won’t stop the Spurs from being a popular pick to win it all this year. Wembanyama’s defensive impact is levels beyond any other player alive, and he’s a top-10 offensive player, too. San Antonio put a solid supporting cast around him this year by trading for De’Aaron Fox, signing Luke Kornet in free agency, and rejuvenating Harrison Barnes’ career. The Spurs have proven it’s better to be lucky than good by moving up in the lottery three straight years for Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper. This organization lit two lottery picks on fire in the 2020s with Josh Primo and Jeremy Sochan, but it didn’t even matter because they landed the best prospect ever and then moved up into the top-4 of the lottery the next two years.

I’m not fully convinced the ‘40-20 rule’ holds this year. The Denver Nuggets were my preseason championship pick, and while injuries have crushed them during the regular season, they should still be a serious contender if they can get healthy by the playoffs. The Celtics will also have a good chance at the title this year, especially if Jayson Tatum returns from a torn Achilles. I wrote that there are nine teams in the title race this season a couple weeks ago, and I still stand by it. This championship picture is much wider than it historically has been due to the CBA bringing parity to the league.

The NBA’s problems — tanking, load management, a typically crappy All-Star Game — get all of the attention, but the playoffs might be the best product in all of sports right now. This last Super Bowl sucked! Meanwhile, last year’s Thunder-Pacers NBA Finals was amazing, and this year’s title race will be as wide open and competitive as it has ever been. The ‘40-20 rule’ hitting 41 out of 45 years is astounding. If the Pistons, Spurs, or Thunder win it all this year, please remember that Phil Jackson was right again.

The running back class is deep, but not top-heavy.

The initial phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League wrapped up this week with the last eight teams booking their spot in the knockout round. 

Friday’s draw at the UEFA headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, will not only determine the matchups in the round of 16 but also the path that each team faces to reach the final on May 30 at Puskás Arena in Budapest.

Before the draw happens, we rank the remaining teams in the competition. 

1. Arsenal 
It’s impossible to look past the Premier League leaders, who finished the initial phase of the Champions League as the only team to go a perfect 8-0. Even more impressive was the fact the Gunners outscored their opponents by a 23-4 margin and that they never trailed in any of their matches. Manager Mikel Arteta’s side has to be considered the favourite to win it all at this point. 

2. Bayern Munich 
The German giants have barely put a foot wrong, winning seven of eight games to secure an automatic berth in the knockout stage. Their lone loss? Against Arsenal. Harry Kane’s eight goals accounted for almost a third of Bayern’s offence and have him sitting third in the goal-scoring race. Bayern’s next opponent is sure to have its hands full with the prolific English striker. 

3. Liverpool 
Liverpool finished third in the overall table by recording six wins, including decisions against Inter Milan, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid. The Reds also recorded four clean sheets in their last five outings, so their next opponent is going to find it hard to break down Arne Slot’s squad. 

4. FC Barcelona 
Fermín López and Marcus Rashford combined for 10 goals during the initial phase, pacing Barcelona to fifth place and an automatic berth in the round of 16. With 22 goals, the Spanish side boasts one of the best attacking units in this competition — FC scored twice in seven of their eight games (10 goals in their previous three outings) and were shut out only once.  

5. Sporting CP
Without a doubt, the biggest surprise package of the competition. The Portuguese outfit won five of its eight games and racked up more points than defending champions Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid to secure an automatic berth for the round of 16. 

6. Tottenham 
Spurs could just prove to be the top sleeper pick to win this year’s competition based on their overall performance. Six wins (just one loss) and an automatic berth in the knockout stage were secured on the basis of their defensive record — just seven goals against, tied for second-best. 

7. Real Madrid 
What would the knockout round be without the 15-time winners of this competition? Los blancos just missed out on automatic qualification by one spot and a single point and then dispatched Benfica in the playoffs to move on. Kylian Mbappé leads the tournament in scoring with 13 goals, which accounts for just over half of the La Liga club’s offensive output. 

8. Paris Saint-Germain 
The reigning champions were forced into the playoffs after finishing just outside of the top eight. But they still looked solid as they navigated their way through a tough schedule — seven of their eight games were against opponents who ended up advancing to the round of 16.

9. Chelsea
The Blues were a tough team to break down during the initial phase of the tournament, conceding just 10 goals across eight games. That allowed them to pick up five wins and secure one of the eight automatic berths for the round of 16. Especially impressive were their 3-0 home win over FC Barcelona and a 3-2 decision away to Napoli. 

10. Manchester City
Pep Guardiola’s side claimed the eighth and final automatic berth for the knockout round with five wins during the initial stage. Erling Haaland is in fine form again — the Norwegian striker is one of top scorers in this year’s competition with seven goals. A 3-1 loss away to FK Bodø/Glimt was embarrassing, but the Blues also registered impressive wins over Real Madrid and Napoli. 

11. Atalanta 
Full credit to the Italians for overcoming a 2-0 loss away to Borussia Dortmund in the first leg of the playoffs by posting a comprehensive 4-1 win at home in the return match to advance. As the only Serie A club in the round of 16, manager Raffaele Palladino’s side will be keen to represent its country as it tries to become the first Italian team to win the competition in 16 years. 

12. Newcastle United 
Don’t sleep on the Magpies, even though they needed to qualify for the round of 16 through the playoffs, the Premier League outfit had one of the best defensive records during the initial phase with just seven goals conceded. They crushed Qarabağ FK in the playoffs (9-3 on aggregate), so tougher challenges are ahead. 

13. Atlético Madrid 
Los Rojiblancos won four of five games before collecting just one point from their last two matches in the initial phase, including a 2-1 home loss to FK Bodø/Glimt. They overcame Belgian side Club Brugge in the playoffs, but not without some effort. Alexander Sørloth and Julián Alvarez have led the charge for the Spaniards, with five goals apiece. 

14. Bayer Leverkusen 
The Germans blew hot and cold during the initial phase. Solid wins over Manchester City and Benfica were somewhat overshadowed by a 7-2 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain and a 2-0 loss away to Olympiacos. They faced the Greeks again in the playoffs and just managed to get by them courtesy of a 2-0 road win in the first leg. 

15. Galatasaray 
The Turks lost more games than they won and conceded more goals than they scored in the initial phase but still did it enough to sneak into the playoffs. They nearly squandered a 5-2 first leg home advantage against Juventus before doing enough in the return leg in Turin to pull things out. Difficult to imagine where’d they be without Victor Osimhen, who is tied for fourth in the scoring race with seven goals. 

16. FK Bodø/Glimt 

The Norwegian side only had two wins during the initial phase as it claimed the second-last playoff berth. But Superlaget (The Super Team) pulled off a major upset when it defeated Italian giants Inter Milan in both legs of its playoff series to advance to the knockout round for the first time in club history. 

John Molinaro is one of the leading soccer journalists in Canada, having covered the game for over 27 years for several media outlets, including Sportsnet, CBC Sports and Sun Media. He is currently the editor-in-chief of TFC Republic, a website dedicated to in-depth coverage of Toronto FC and Canadian soccer.

A day after New England Patriots executive vice president of player personnel Eliot Wolf addressed reporters at the 2026 NFL combine, it was Mike Vrabel's turn.

And the head coach spoke about a lot, including how little time he's had to prepare for this week.

"Really, I haven't looked at much of the draft guys, personally, outside of what we looked at briefly in Foxborough before we came," Vrabel said. "But try to look at the free agents, try to understand, while we're here, who these players are. A lot of these guys I meet and I’m really excited to look at their film just based on their energy, just how they presented themselves and the passion in which they spoke. I'm excited to go and watch them."

So, here's a round-up of Vrabel's comments from his press conference on Wednesday:

Promoting Zak Kuhr to defensive coordinator

Just before the combine began, the Patriots promoted inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr to full-time defensive coordinator after he had served in that role this past season after Terrell Williams was diagnosed with prostate cancer.

"I think there's a lot of things in play there," Vrabel said. "I think we're just trying to figure out what's best defensively for us, what's best for the staff organizationally and being able to get everybody's strengths where they need to be. I know that Terrell [Williams] will be able to help me on a lot of things, help the football team, help the defense, continue to have a big role in that, and then just seeing where things progressed with Zak and the comfort level that we had there.

"So, that's where we ended up, and I think we have a great staff. There'll be some people that we'll add going through this process."

However, Vrabel has yet to determine an official title for Williams, who will remain with the team in a senior role.

"He will when I get back to Foxborough. I don't want to sit here and misspeak and figure out where that ends up," the head coach added. "I've got a plan for him, and I think that a vision is better than the title, necessarily. So, I don't want to say something and not have that be an accurate depiction of what ends up happening once we work through a lot of different things."

Stefon Diggs' future with the Patriots

When the Patriots signed Stefon Diggs last offseason, it was a situation that truly benefited both parties, with New England getting a talented receiver and Diggs proving he could bounce back from the injury. However, they now have a very interesting decision to make, as Diggs could save $26.5 million in cap space by cutting him.

However, Vrabel only had good things to say about the receiver when asked at the combine.

"I mean, not only his future, but what he was able to do for us and come in and provide leadership," Vrabel explained. "He worked extremely hard in the time that he was rehabbing from the knee. I think he was just a really good presence each and every week. So, as we look to evaluate the football team, we're doing that constantly, Eliot [Wolf], myself, Ryan [Cowden], Stretch [John Streicher] and Eliot's staff."

"There's a lot of things that we'll do between now and the time that the football season starts," he added. "So, that's going to be the same with, I would say, most every player on our roster."

However, there is one other factor at play as Diggs is facing assault and strangulation charges, in which he pleaded not guilty, with the pretrial hearing set for April 1.

“We’re going to let the legal process run its course, just like we’ve said before,” Vrabel said. “Those players, whether that’s Stefon or anybody else that has something, have done exactly what they’re supposed to do, been where they’re supposed to be, communicated with the court when they’re supposed to communicate with them. So, we’re going to let all that take care of itself, and then we’ll have to see what the judgments are in those particular cases.”

Thoughts on the draft class

When asked about the prospects, Vrabel immediately highlighted the tight end class.

"Whether they're premium players or what people would say are first-round picks, I just know that when you go and you evaluate other teams and you get ready to play for them, there's a bunch of fourth and fifth round tight ends that end up starting, playing and contributing," he said. "So, wherever that value is, I just think that there are some names there.

Vrabel also addressed the edge position, which is a big need for the Patriots.

"We've met with a bunch of edge players," the head coach stated. "There's depth there. So, we'll continue to work our way across the board and enjoy these meetings, and I'll have to go back and continue to watch."

And as for what he's looking for, Vrabel's answer was simple.

"I think that there's got to be a violence," he detailed. "There's got to be ability to move off the football and to create some sort of disruption. You have to be able to factor in on the quarterback. You have to be able to make plays on the football.

Relationship with A.J. Brown

There is a lot of speculation that the Patriots will be in the market for a true star weapon this offseason, and many think that Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown is a good fit. Brown has looked unhappy at times this past season in Philadelphia, so a trade is possible.

So with that, New England would be a good landing spot as he spent the first three seasons of his career with Vrabel and the Tennessee Titans.

“I’ve watched him grow. I’ve watched him mature. I’m proud of him, proud of the father that he is. I’m proud of the husband,” Vrabel said. “That has nothing to do with where he plays or where he played. Those are the things that are important.”

“We reach out and text each other during the good things that happen to each other. Sometimes things don’t go so well for the people that you’re close with, and you text for those as well. It’s a two-way street of support and reminders of what got us to where we are here today.”

Plan for free agency

Vrabel kept this one simple: "there's always time to be aggressive, but not reckless."

"We want to have a plan, and we want to bring in really talented players that we have a vision for, that we also believe in the type of character that they have as we build this team and improve on what we did this year," he explained. "So right now, the plan is to evaluate everybody that we can, have communication and conversations, when those times come, with the agents as we approach the tampering window.

"Right now, it's about gaining information from our scouting department and having our coaches look at it and then figuring out a few players at each position that may help us."

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This article originally appeared on Patriots Wire: What we learned from Patriots HC Mike Vrabel at the 2026 NFL combine

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